https://www.facebook.com/RTVunmsm/videos/1412612106250995
domingo, 23 de julio de 2023
viernes, 14 de julio de 2023
China en el Peru
China cada vez
tiene una mayor presencia en el Peru.
En el
comercio:
De enero a mayo
del 2023, alrededor del 36% de todas las exportaciones de bienes del Peru
fueron a China. A EE. UU. solo fue solo el 13.7%[1].
El año 2022 a China fue el 32.9% del total, y el 2021 el 34.7% (el 2010 solo el
15% de las exportaciones peruanas fueron a China, lo mismo que a EE. UU., y el
2000 EE. UU. era el primer destino con 27.5% del total y China el cuarto con 6.4%[2]).
En importaciones de bienes el 2022 el 25% del total vino de China, de EE. UU.
el 24%[3].
Las exportaciones son el motor de la economía peruana. El año 2022 el Peru
exporto 63,193 millones de dólares, el 2010 exporto unos 35,805 millones de
dólares[4], y
el 2000 las exportaciones fueron de 7,028 millones de dólares[5] (y
3,276 millones de dólares en 1990[6]).
En promedio, un 35%
de las exportaciones del Peru va a China. El 60% de las exportaciones peruanas son
minerales, y 52% de esas exportaciones mineras van a China, y un 47% de los
productos pesqueros. El cobre constituyo el 30% de las exportaciones peruanas
el 2022, y casi el 74% de ese metal fue a China. La empresa Las Bambas (de un consorcio
de las empresas chinas MMG Limited, Guoxin International Investment Co. Ltd. y CITIC
Metal Co. Ltd.) es
la cuarta empresa que más exporta minerales en el país, Shougang es la
séptima, Toromocho (de Aluminun Corporation of China-Chinalco) es la
novena (a mayo del 2023). (datos de MINCETUR).
Peru tiene un Tratado
de Libre Comercio con China en vigencia desde el 2010. Se está negociando
actualmente una actualización, modernización, de ese TLC.
En
inversiones:
China tiene
invertido más de 30 mil millones de dólares en el Perú, de acuerdo con datos de
su propia Embajada[7].
A fines del 2022, de acuerdo con cifras de la UNCTAD, en el Peru había un stock
de inversión extranjera directa de 129,541 millones de dólares (UNCTAD, World
Investment Report 2022)[8].
De ser así, la inversión China representaría mas de 23% del total,
probablemente el mayor de todos. De acuerdo con Proinversion (entidad del
gobierno peruano), a fines del 2022 había unos 30,190 millones de dólares de Inversión
Extranjera directa, IED, en el Peru y Reino Unido era el mayor inversor con
5,427 millones de dólares y segundo España con 5,227 millones de dólares. China
estaba en octavo puesto con 1,131 millones de dólares[9]
(aunque obviamente esa no es la verdadera cifra de la inversión de este país en
Peru).
Por ejemplo, solo
la inversión china en las Bambas ya alcanza los 10 mil millones de dólares.
Esta mina se dice produce el equivalente al 1% del PIB del Peru y 2% de la
producción mundial de cobre[10]. Las
empresas chinas controlan prácticamente el 100% de la producción de hierro, y
entre el 20% y 25% de la de cobre.
En los últimos
años China invierte más en infraestructura física en Peru. Por ejemplo, se dice
que quizás ya un cuarto de la producción y 40% de la distribución de
electricidad en el país es controlada por empresas chinas, ccomo
China Southern Power Grid International China
y Three Georges Corporation[11].
Esta también la inversión en el Puerto de Chancay, ubicado
a 90 kilómetros al norte de Lima, que será el puerto más moderno en el Pacifico
Sur Latinoamericano, donde un 60% es de la empresa Cosco Shipping
Corporation. Contempla una inversión total de 3,600 millones de dólares.
Peru es miembro de la iniciativa china de la franja y
la ruta desde el 2019, y es miembro del Banco Asiático de Inversión e
Infraestructura, BAII, y dio un aporte de 154.6 millones de dólares, el mayor
de Latinoamérica (solo 6 países en la región han hecho aportes: Argentina, Brasil,
Chile, Ecuador, Peru y Uruguay), y ese monto dado por el Peru representa el 84%
del total dado por los países de la región[12].
Peru ha recibido muy poca Ayuda Oficial al Desarrollo o
prestamos del gobierno chino.
En el sector
tecnológico:
A fines de febrero
del 2023 el presidente de la Comisión de Transportes y Comunicaciones del
Congreso de la República, junto con la vicepresidenta de la Comisión de
Fiscalización viajaron a Madrid para el Mobile World Congress (MWC) invitados
por la empresa Huawei. (diario El Comercio 12 de julio del 2023). En junio del
2023 6 congresistas viajaron a China invitados por una empresa del rubro
tecnológico (Comercio 12-7-2023).
China está
invirtiendo en la formación de recursos humanos para tecnología 5G, Huawei en
particular, en Universidades como UNMSM[13] y
UNI[14].
Relaciones
con el sector académico
La mayoría de los
que estudian o investigan sobre China se han formado en China, China cada vez
da mas becas y financia participación en Conferencias. También las relaciones
académicas con centros que investigan sobre China son mayormente con
instituciones de ese país.
Existen 4
Institutos Confucio en el Peru, dos en Lima y dos en el interior del país,
ubicados uno en el Norte y otro en el Sur. Todas esos Centros están en
Universidades privadas[15].
Peru frente a
la competencia China EE. UU.
Se habla de que
los dos países se encaminan a una rivalidad sistémica, desacoplamiento, y
creación de dos cadenas de suministro paralelas, pues uno no quiere depender
del otro. Y que la competencia podría afectar al resto de países si estos se
ven obligado a tomar partido por uno de ellos. Y esas dos potencias (poderes)
podrían ejercer presión sobre el resto.
Lo recomendable es
no depender mucho de uno de ellos, diversificar, aunque esto no es fácil. Se
dice que el país depende ahora mucho de China, en sus exportaciones, por
ejemplo. Pero dada la estructura de la economía peruana y de sus exportaciones,
de mayormente de materias primas, no hay muchas alternativas. Y el Peru también
necesita inversiones en infraestructura y no hay muchas fuentes de donde
conseguir eso.
Se habla también
de que quizás esa competencia, desacoplamiento, puede beneficiar al resto de países.
Por ejemplo, de que ya que para las empresas de EE. UU. el onshoring no es tan
factible, se favorece el nearshoring, o friend-shoring. México se está
beneficiando de eso. El Peru podría hacerlo siempre que se den las condiciones (ambiente
social más estable, incentivos económicos, etc.)
[1]
Ministerio de Comercio Exterior y Turismo, MINCETUR: https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/4803120/RMC%20Mayo%202023.pdf?v=1688656436
[2]
BCRP: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Memoria/2000/Memoria-BCRP-2000-3.pdf
pagina 12, Cuadro 20
[3] MINCETUR: https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/4090459/RMC%20Diciembre%202022.pdf?v=1675959528
[4] MINCETUR: https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/471841/RM_Expo_Diciembre_2011.pdf?v=1578072764
[5] Según el Banco Central de Reserva
del Peru, BCRP: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Memoria/2000/Memoria-BCRP-2000-3.pdf
[6]
BCRP, y China no aparecía entre los 10 primeros lugares como destino de
exportaciones. https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Memoria/1990/Memoria-BCRP-1990-2.pdf
Pagina 12. Aparece en 1991 como el quinto destino con 5% y EE. UU. era el
primero con 22.1% del total https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Memoria/1991/Memoria-BCRP-1991-2.pdf
[7] Embajada de China en Peru: http://pe.china-embassy.gov.cn/esp/sghd/202008/t20200829_4464356.htm
[9] Proinversion: https://www.investinperu.pe/es/invertir/estadisticas-generales/inversion-extranjera
[10] Diario El Peruano: https://elperuano.pe/noticia/137100-mina-las-bambas-aporta-casi-1-al-pbi-nacional#:~:text=La%20empresa%20minera%20Las%20Bambas,las%20comunidades%20campesinas%20de%20Chumbivilcas
[11]
Infobae: https://www.infobae.com/peru/2023/04/12/compra-de-enel-especialistas-comentan-sobre-como-impactara-esta-operacion-al-mercado-de-energia-electrica-en-el-peru/
y también Otra Mirada: https://otramirada.pe/distribuci%C3%B3n-el%C3%A9ctrica-de-lima-con-china-el-imperio-celeste-controla-la-energ%C3%ADa
[12] Blog de Carlos Aquino: http://asiapacifico-carlosaquino.blogspot.com/2022/01/peru-es-el-miembro-latinoamericano-que.html y también BAII: https://www.aiib.org/en/about-aiib/governance/members-of-bank/index.htm
[13] UNMSM: https://unmsm.edu.pe/noticias-y-eventos/noticias/noticia-detalle/san-marcos-y-huawei-promoveran-talento-digital-de-estudiantes-y-docentes
viernes, 31 de marzo de 2023
United States efforts to decouple from China and implications for Peru.
United States is implementing a series of measures to try to cut off its dependence from China in certain areas, or to deny China access to certain technologies. In this sense, US is enlisting the help of some of its allies, as seen in the case of its effort to cut the flow of advanced semiconductors to China, as in the formation of the Chips 4 Alliance. Japan and Taiwan seem to be already on board in this idea. Netherlands, not a member of that alliance, is also participating. Still South Korea has not officially joined the Alliance.
What about Peru?
Can Peru join in the effort to isolate China as US is planning to do? What, if
any, can Peru do in that regard?
In this article a look
at that issue is given. First, a brief review of Peru relations with China and
US is given; second, in which areas could Peru cooperate with US effort is
analyzed; and lastly, it is seen if really Peru can join that effort.
1.
Peru
relations with China and United States
China became, from
the beginning of last decade, the biggest trade partner of Peru. In 2022 Peru exports
of goods to China were 32.9% of its total exports, while to US was only
13.6%. Imports of Peru from both China and US were around the same proportion,
25% of the total for each one. Then, Peru is dependent on the Chinese market
for its exports, mainly of copper, which account for 30.5% of Peru´s total
exports, and China is the destination for 73.6% of Peru´s copper exports.
Peru has Free
Trade Agreements with both US and China. With the first from 2009 and with
China from 2010.
Regarding investment,
at the end of 2021 there was a stock of 117.8 billion dollars of Foreign Direct
Investment, FDI, in Peru, of which around 26% was from China[1].
The amount of FDI from US in Peru, accordingly to US data at the end of 2019
was a stock of 7.5 billion dollars.[2]
Probably US investment is bigger than that amount, but not as big as of China.
According to Peru data, which is not reliable because it does not record all
FDI in the country, at the end of 2022 there was a stock of 30.19 billion
dollars of FDI, of which from US was 10.7% of the total, and from China 3.7% of
the total[3].
Anyway, in the last years there has been no new US investment in Peru, but
China continues increasing its investment in the country.
Regarding exchange
of students and people, for many Peruvians US is still the desired destination
for study. According to US data, by July 2022, there were more than 3,500
Peruvian students in US and almost 4,000 US students in Peru[4].
Data for China is not available but probably the number of Peruvian students in
China, and of Chinese students in Peru is quite low, though in the last years
it is increasing the number of Peruvians students going to China, because, among
other reasons, the Chinese government is offering many scholarships to Peruvian
students.
Regarding economic
cooperation, specifically bilateral assistance, US has been in the last decade
the second largest contributor to Peru. According to a report, from 2011 to
2019 Peru received 4.4 billion dollars in bilateral assistance from the DAC of
OECD countries, and from that amount 24.5% came from US, being the second
largest donor to Peru, after Germany which contributed with around 28% of the
total, and in third place was Japan with around 14%.[5]
For bilateral assistance received from China there is no available data, but
probably is not meaningful.
For Peru, China is
becoming more important in the economic aspect, but still US is important for
Peru in the political and military aspect. US has provided armaments to Peru
armed forces, and also Russia, but China not. And Peru is in the America
continent, where US is the most important country for many Latin America ones,
and certainly will remain that way in the foreseeable future.
II. In which areas can Peru cooperate with US?
US competition
with China happens in several areas. Regarding Peru possible involvement in that
issue, perhaps it could in the following ones:
1.
Access
to valuable raw materials, like lithium: Lithium is considered a strategic
material needed for industries like batteries, for electric vehicles. This
material is not abundant or easily to exploit, and in fact a few countries hold
most of the mineral that could easily be exploited. Some countries in South
America are well endowed with lithium. The so-called lithium triangle, along
the borders of Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile, is said to hold around 60% of the
world reserves. But in fact, Peru also has lithium around that triangle[6].
Peru has lithium
and it is said that Chinese companies could be interested, as they are present
now in those south American countries[7].
US criticize China involvement in the exploitation of theses resource, in
particular, in the lithium triangle[8].
But the
perspectives for the exploitation of lithium in Peru is not good now, among
other reasons, because most of the mineral is situated in Puno, a region that
is home to many social protests, where local communities have opposed other
mining projects. Also, Peru government has not developed any framework to
exploit that resource yet[9]. And
there is only one company interested in the exploitation of this product.
American Lithium, a company from Canada, is the owner of a lithium and uranium
deposit in the Puno region[10].
2.
Peru
adoption of the 5G technology
5G technology will
be adopted by all countries. But still there is no data set for that in Peru[11].
It is known that Chinese companies, like Huawei, are the leaders in this field.
In Peru Huawei is establishing itself as a leader in mobile technology and has
cooperation agreement for example with San Marcos National University[12]
and other public and private universities[13]
to foster human capital in those areas.
It is well known
that US is pressuring some countries not to adopt 5G technology from China. It
has done it in Europe, in Asia, and is doing in Latin America. For example, it
is said that US pressed Ecuador not to adopt Chinese technology for its 5G network
in exchange for extending a loan in January 2021[14].
Also, Chile government in 2020 decided to adopt a Japanese proposal for
building an undersea fiber-optical cable, instead of a Chinese proposal that
would have directly linked Chile with China, because of US pressure[15]. What
will happen when Peru decides to adopt 5G technology?
III. Can Peru
join US efforts to isolate China?
As has been seen,
Peru has important economic links with China. China is its biggest trade
partner, and around one third of Peru goods are exported to that country. Also,
China is already the main investor in the country.
In 2019, when Mike
Pompeo, then US secretary of State, visited Peru, he told the government that
Peru must be very careful when taking a decision to implement 5G technology. He
said that Huawei is an entity linked to the Chinese government and Peru data
could/would go directly to China.[16]
Many
considerations will have to be taken when adopting 5G technology from China´s
Huawei. One of the concerns is for example about how access to Huawei
technology will be sustainable in the face of growing sanctions that US is
implementing against this company. US would cut off completely access to US
technology to Huawei soon[17].
In some circles in
government and academy in Peru, there is beginning to be an informal debate
about how much Peru is being linked to China, and what this will mean this in
the face of confrontation between the two big superpowers: China and US, and
how this will affect Peru decision in that regard. Lessons are studied of, for
example, how Australia and New Zealand are dealing with that dilemma. Australia
in particular, a country much dependent in China market for its goods, had some
problems when it criticized China at the beginning of 2020[18].
Anyway, still how
Peru could or would help US intent on containing China, if that is the case,
and how would react to China response to that, is not known. It is a theme not
debated yet, but one that must be done. This author is much interested in that
theme and will continue writing about it[19].
March 22, 2023
[1] According to data from the
Chinese Embassy in Peru and UNCTAD.
[2]Office of the USTR: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/western-hemisphere/peru#:~:text=U.S.%20foreign%20direct%20investment%20(FDI,%2C%20manufacturing%2C%20and%20wholesale%20trade.
[3] See Proinversion: https://www.investinperu.pe/es/invertir/estadisticas-generales/inversion-extranjera
[4] According to US Department of
State: https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-peru/
[5] See MOFA: “Evaluation of
Japan´s ODA to the Republic of Peru”
page 22 https://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/oda/evaluation/FY2021/pdfs/peru.pdf
[6] See the interview with Walter
Sanchez of Peru´s Ministry of Energy and Mining: https://www.bnamericas.com/en/interviews/perus-take-on-the-future-of-lithium
[7] See for example: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Why-Chinese-lithium-companies-are-targeting-Bolivia
[8] See for example https://news.usni.org/2023/03/08/chinese-actions-in-south-america-pose-risks-to-u-s-safety-senior-military-commanders-tell-congress
[9] As mentioned by the Ministry of
Economy on march 10, 2023. See Diario el Comercio: https://elcomercio.pe/economia/mef-estima-que-tasa-de-pobreza-de-puno-supera-el-70-por-cierre-de-actividades-economicas-en-la-region-noticia/?ref=ecr
[10] See https://gestion.pe/economia/empresas/canadiense-american-lithium-controlara-yacimientos-de-litio-y-uranio-de-plateau-energy-en-peru-noticia/.
[11] I could take to a former Vice
Minister of Communications one month ago about this theme.
[12] From 2018 Huawei signed several
agreements with my university to foster experts in science and technology, in
the information and communication technology. The last one was signed recently
on March 2023. See: https://unmsm.edu.pe/noticias-y-eventos/noticias/noticia-detalle/san-marcos-y-huawei-promoveran-talento-digital-de-estudiantes-y-docentes#:~:text=futuro%20o%20el-,ICT,-Competition%20de%20la
and also https://viceacademico.unmsm.edu.pe/?news=sanmarquinos-ganan-concursos-tecnologicos-de-huawei-por-cuarto-ano-consecutivo
[13] See for example https://www.exitosanoticias.pe/actualidad/rectoras-exigen-mayor-presupuesto-tecnologia-n93966 and https://puntoedu.pucp.edu.pe/institucional/centrum-pucp-y-huawei-se-unen-para-fortalecer-la-maestria-en-gerencia-de-tecnologias-de-la-informacion/
[15] See Nikkei Asia: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Telecommunication/Chile-picks-Japan-s-trans-Pacific-cable-route-in-snub-to-China
[16] See interview with Pompeo: https://elcomercio.pe/mundo/venezuela/venezuela-mike-pompeo-salida-nicolas-maduro-tomando-entrevista-comercio-noticia-ecpm-626549-noticia/
[17] See Nikkei Asia: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/Washington-halts-licenses-for-U.S.-tech-exports-to-Huawei and also this: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Huawei-crackdown/Huawei-s-rebirth-as-cloud-provider-faces-total-U.S.-export-ban-threat
[18]See for example https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/chinese-coercion-australian-resilience
[19] This author is talking to several
policy makers about this theme now but still there is no formal debate.
sábado, 11 de marzo de 2023
Evolution of trade relations between Peru and South Korea eleven years after the Free Trade Agreement.
Evolution of trade relations between Peru and South
Korea eleven years after the Free Trade Agreement.
https://www.slideshare.net/carlosalbertoaquinorodriguez/evolution-of-trade-relations-between-peru-and-south-korea-eleven-years-after-the-free-trade-agreement
Carlos
Aquino Rodríguez; Maria Osterloh Mejía*
State of issue
In 2011 a free trade agreement (FTA) between Peru and
Korea entered into force, and from that year exports from Peru to Korea have
increased, even if imports have not. Korea become the fifth biggest trade
partner of Peru and its fourth largest export destination.
Not only trade have increased but also investment from
Korea to Peru. In this article the evolution of trade and investment since the
FTA between Peru and Korea entered into force will be seen aa also what are the
perspectives for the economic relations for the two countries.
Causes and analysis.
Peru and South Korea established diplomatic relations
on April 1, 1963, and since then relations have developed smoothly, especially
in the economic field. This year marks the 60th anniversary of the
establishment of diplomatic relations between both nations.
South Korea has become a strategic trading partner,
especially since the middle of the last decade. Peru has had a constant trade
surplus with Korea since 2016, and as it can be seen in Figure 1, bilateral
exchange in 2021 was 3.9 billion dollars, compared with around 3.2 billion
dollars of 2011. This result is because exports, of mainly raw materials, have increased,
even if imports decreased in that period (See below).
In 2010, a year before the FTA entered into force,
South Korea ranked as the eleventh trading partner for Peru. By 2021, this
country became the fifth largest trading partner and the fourth destination
market for Peruvian exports. In addition, between January and November of 2022,
Korea was the fifth destination for Peruvian exports in the world after China,
United States, Japan, and Canada, and the third most important market in Asia.
Figure 1: Peru – South Korea: Evolution of Bilateral
Trade and Trade Balance 2011-2021, million US dollars
Source: Authors elaboration with data from
Superintendencia Nacional de Aduanas y de Administración Tributaria (SUNAT)
As can be seen in Figure 2, between 2011 and 2021 Peruvian exports to
South Korea have almost doubled. In 2021, the percentage of Peruvian exports to
Korea represented 5% of the total exported by Peru, while imports represented
2% of the total.
Figure 2: Peru: Exports to South Korea 2011-2022
Million
USD
Source: Authors elaboration with data from
Superintendencia Nacional de Aduanas y de Administración Tributaria (SUNAT)
As seen in Table 1 and Table 2, bilateral trade between
Peru and Korea is complementary. Peruvian exports are mainly concentrated in a
few products, especially raw materials (called traditional products). In 2011,
when the FTA entered into force, the five main products exported to South Korea
represented 90% of the total exported to this country, these being mainly
minerals and natural gas.
10 years later, the core structure of the export
basket to South Korea have changed little. The value of the amount exported
have increased, but the five main products participation have decreased from
90% to 81%. But thanks to the FTA, Peruvian exports to Korea of so called non-traditional
products have increased. For example, in the case of the export of agricultural
products, they went from 3% of the total exported by Peru to Korea in 2011 to
7% in 2021. Korea opened an important part of its agricultural sector to Peru
and import duties for these goods were reduced or eliminated.
According to the Ministry of Foreign Trade of Peru,
agricultural exports to Korea reached a record amount in 2021 (US$ 204
million), due to higher shipments of fruit (+79%), mainly avocado (+159%), grapes
(+ 119%), Brazil nuts (+66%) and mango (+33%). According to The International
trade Centre, South Korea imported fruits for US$ 1.8 billion in 2021, and Peru
become its 5th biggest supplier that year (7% of the total). In the year 2011,
Peru was the 14th biggest supplier accounting for only 0.2% of the
total[1]. Also,
there are products from the chemical sector that saw its participation in total
exports increase from 0.3% of the total in 2011 to 1% in 2021 and fishery
products from 4% to 5%.
As described before, the exports of mining products
and fuels to South Korea continue to be the ones that increased the most. For
Korea, Peru is an important supplier of mining goods, since it ranked as its
second largest supplier of copper and lead.
Table 1: Comparison of the five first products
exported by Peru to South Korea in 2011 and 2021
Authors elaboration with data from International Trade Centre (ITC)
On the other hand, as can be seen in Table 2, imports
from South Korea are characterized for being inputs, of products of high
technology, such as capital goods, and final consumer goods, therefore,
purchases are highly diversified. In 2011 the first five products imported
represented 37% of the total and in 2021 these represented only 29% of the
total imported. In 2021, imports from South Korea were divided into 28% from
the automotive sector and heavy industry, 18% of plastic industry products, 10%
of fuels, 7% of pharmaceutical products, 5% of steel products, 5% chemical
products, 4% cement and 2% electrical appliances.
Figure 3: Peru: Imports from South Korea
Millions USD
Authors elaboration with data from Superintendencia Nacional de Aduanas
y de Administración Tributaria (SUNAT)
Even so, Peruvian imports from South Korea are
declining, particularly since 2016. This may be explained by the fact that many
of the Korean companies that produce mobile phones, cars, televisions, or other
electric appliances have moved operations to countries like Mexico, Brazil, China,
or Southeast Asian countries. Peru continues buying Korean products, but not assembled
in Korea itself, but from its companies established in other countries.
Table
2: Comparison of the five first products imported from South Korea by Peru in
2011 and 2021
Authors elaboration with data from International Trade Centre (ITC)
This can be seen from the data of imports from 2011 to
2022 of the main Korean companies of tech appliances established in Peru. For
example, LG Electronics Imports Peru purchased in 2011 around 268 million
dollars, of which 45% came from South Korea. In contrast, in 2022 it imported
products for 200 million dollars but from Korea only 10% of the total, and from
Mexico 59%; China 14% and Thailand 12%.
Another good example is Kia Import Peru, that
purchased from the world a total amount of 158 million dollars in 2011 and
99.9% of that came from South Korea. In 2022, this scenario changed. Of the
total 201 million it imported, goods from South Korea represented 50% of the
total; India 21%; China 20% and Mexico 9%[2].
Regarding investment, the FTA has helped to increase
Korean investments in Peru, going from 51.8 million dollars in 2011 to 475.8
million dollars in 2021, increasing eight times more. In 2021, Peru was the
third largest destination of Korean investments in Latin America and the
Caribbean, contrasting with the number eight position in which it was in 2011.
See Figure 4. The FTA includes a chapter on investment, and this replaced the
Bilateral Investment Treaty.
Korean investment arrived in Peru in the 1990s, during
the first wave of internationalization of the companies of that country and amid
the reforms and economic opening that Peru was going through. Between 1994 and
2021 investment from Korean companies in Peru were mainly concentrated in the mining
and fuel sector, accounting for 98% of total stock between those years.
Figure 4: Korean Investment Flow in Peru between 2005 –
2022*, Millions U$D
*Data from January to September
Author’s elaboration with data from Korea Export – Import Bank
For example, in 2018, Korean Japanese consortium LS
Nikko Copper Inc. a trader dedicated to sell molten copper, subscribed an
agreement for one billion dollars with Peruvian company MINSUR to buy copper
concentrates between 2021 and 2030.
On the other hand, companies like Samsung, LG, and
Daewoo, have been in Peru since the late 1990s and are very popular for their
electrical appliances and electronics sold in department stores and in their
own stores, but they do not have assembly plants in the country.
In the construction sector, three projects for the
construction of gas power plants carried out by POSCO were completed in 2012
and 2016. Likewise, the consortium Korea Airports Corp. (KAC) is involved in
the construction of the Chincheros International Airport from 2019.
And finally, in the food industry sector, the only
Korean company in this area is Freeko Peru S.A., which was established in 1997,
and stands out for being one of the largest packers of frozen pre-cooked fish
and shellfish, and it operates in the Paita Special Development Zone in the
Piura region.
Korean investment stock in Peru between 1994 and 2021
accounted for around 3.5 billion dollars, according to the data published by
the Korea Export Import Bank.
Future expectations and implication
Regarding the evolution of trade between Peru and Korea, imports from
Korea would continue to decrease, not only because less Korean goods would be
bought from Korea itself (but bought from other countries where Korean
companies are established) but also because there are goods from China
competing very strongly, in fields like automobiles, electronic, mobile phones.
Chinese goods are cheap and increasingly of better quality. As Korean goods
before replaced Japanese goods, now Chinese goods are replacing Korean goods.
One reason for expecting that imports from Korea will decrease in spite
of a FTA can be seen from the fact that in the case of Peru trade with Japan, a
country with which Peru signed a FTA that went in force in 2012, imports from
Japan also fell in 2021 compared with the level of 2012. In the case of Japan
imports fell from a level of 1.5 billion dollars in 2012 to 957 million dollars
in 2021. Many Japanese goods in Peru are imported not from Japan but from
Brazil or Mexico, in automobiles for example, or from China, in the case of TV
sets. Also, because Japanese goods are competing with ones from Korea and
China.
Regarding Peruvian exports, there is a potential for increasing Peru
exports of agricultural goods to Korea, specially of fruits and vegetables.
Peru has become a big player in the international market for those goods. For
example, Peru now is the biggest exporter of berries, of grapes, in the world,
and the second of avocados and asparagus. One problem for increasing the
exports of agricultural goods to Korea is that this country has very strict
phytosanitary requirements and takes a long time to give approval to imports.
Peru has also potential to increase exports of fishery goods, as its
shares a long coastline of Pacific Ocean with rich marine resources. More
investment in this field will be necessary to exploit these resources. Also,
Peru territory is nearly 50% of Amazon area and there is plenty of wood there,
but not enough transport means exists to bring these goods to the ports in the
coast and export them (and to process the wood and create a wood industry).
Investment from Korea could increase more because Peru has plenty of
natural resources, like minerals, oil and natural gas, and lithium, but
probably a more stable political and social situation in the country is needed
for foreign investment to exploit these resources. Also, the manufacturing
sector could attract investment as Peru is signatory to many FTAs that would
allow access to many markets for the products made in the country, but again a
more stable situation and policies to promotes this sector will be needed.
Perhaps if Korea become a member of the Pacific Alliance, which Peru is a
member with Mexico, Chile, and Colombia, a biggest common market will make Peru
a more attractive place for Korea investment.
*Carlos Aquino is Director of the Asia Studies Centre at San Marcos
National University, and Maria Osterloh is a professor and researcher in the
Centre.
[1] See International Trade Centre,
Trade Map: List of supplying markets for the product imported by Korea,
Republic of in 2021
Product:
08 Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruit or melons https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelProductCountry.aspx?nvpm=1%7c410%7c%7c%7c%7c08%7c%7c%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c1%7c1%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c1
[2] Source: data from SUNAT, consulta
por importador / exportador http://www.aduanet.gob.pe/cl-ad-itconsultadwh/ieITS01Alias?accion=consultar&CG_consulta=1
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